US Intelligence Warns Saudi Arabia May Pursue Nuclear Weapons

According to a US intelligence community assessment, Saudi Arabia has not ruled out the development of nuclear weapons. This information, derived from classified documents shared with Congress, has heightened concerns among lawmakers regarding President Donald Trump’s agreement to assist Riyadh in establishing a civilian nuclear program. Critics of the deal fear it could provide Saudi Arabia with a pathway to nuclear armament and potentially incite a regional arms race.

The agreement allows American companies to invest tens of billions of dollars in nuclear energy projects within Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration asserts that this initiative aims to strengthen US-Saudi relations and deter Riyadh from seeking closer ties with adversaries such as Russia and China. When the deal was announced in July, officials claimed it would enhance US and regional security by adhering to high standards of nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation, while also bolstering the United States’ competitive edge in civil nuclear technology.

Democratic lawmakers have increasingly scrutinized the agreement, particularly concerning provisions that could permit Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium to nearly 20 percent. They express concerns that such nuclear material could be diverted for military purposes. Currently, Congress is undertaking a 90-day review of the agreement, with the possibility of blocking it if sufficient support is garnered.

A group of Democratic senators, led by Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon, criticized the Trump administration for deviating from established precedents by adopting looser restrictions. They argue that the agreement could enable Riyadh to acquire the means to enrich uranium and potentially develop nuclear weapons.

The classified documents sent to Congress also included a more optimistic assessment from the State Department regarding the agreement’s safeguards and assurances from Riyadh. The Saudi government has not directly addressed inquiries about the agreement but has referred to statements made by Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, who emphasized that the program would be developed with a focus on peaceful purposes and transparency.

State Department Defends Nuclear Cooperation Agreement

In defense of the agreement, the State Department reiterated that the United States does not support a Saudi nuclear weapons program. They described the initiative as a proactive approach to enhancing nuclear energy cooperation while maintaining stringent nonproliferation standards.

Under the current terms of the agreement, Saudi Arabia’s uranium enrichment is capped at less than five percent. However, following further studies and a written agreement, this ceiling could rise to 20 percent. While this level of enrichment is significantly below weapons grade, it can be escalated relatively quickly.

Cleared to File

The Trump administration maintains that the agreement includes the necessary nonproliferation safeguards mandated by US law. Additionally, Trump has stated that Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Abraham Accords was a prerequisite for the nuclear agreement. The Abraham Accords, negotiated during Trump’s first term, facilitated diplomatic normalization between Israel and several Arab nations.

Following the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel, Saudi Arabia suspended the US-backed normalization process with Israel, which had been progressing prior to the incident.